Author
Dede Puji Setiono
Abstract
In response to a perceived decline in traditional family sizes and below-replacement fertility rates, the provincial government of Bali, Indonesia, has announced a new pro-natalist policy scheduled for implementation in 2025. The policy offers financial incentives for families having their third and fourth children, who are traditionally named Komang and Ketut, respectively. This paper conducts an ex-ante quantitative analysis to evaluate the likely impact of this policy on Bali’s Total Fertility Rate. We employ a household utility maximisation framework, calibrated with demographic and economic data from Bali and Indonesia, to simulate the fertility choices of a synthetic population of households before and after the policy’s introduction. The results of the policy simulation indicate a minimal potential impact, with the total fertility rate projected to increase by less than 1 per cent under plausible assumptions about the incentive’s value. A sensitivity analysis confirms that even under highly optimistic scenarios, the policy is unlikely to induce a substantial rise in fertility. We argue that while the policy might positively address local cultural anxieties regarding the Balinese naming tradition, its design overlooks the complex, multifaceted determinants of modern fertility decisions.
Keywords
Population policy, pro-natalist policy, fertility, family planning, ex-ante evaluation
Access link:
https://doi.org/10.1177/15396754261418005
